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Jolly Thirteen Predictions for 2017 and Review of 2016

2016 was, shall we say, a difficult to year to predict. Despite that, some members of the Jolly Thirteen Club had some tragically dead on predictions and humorous misses.

As per our annual tradition, the Jolly Thirtreen Club met at One Mile House on the 13th of January to reveal the results of last year's predictions and make entirely new predictions for 2017. Will we finally prove ourselves to have psychic powers of precognition? Probably not, but we'll still have fun!

Click below to read the predictions for 2017 and see how we did in 2016.

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Save the Date for NECSS 2017

 We are thrilled to announce the ninth annual Northeast Conference on Science & Skepticism will take place June 29-July 2, 2017 at the Fashion Institute of Technology in New York City!

NECSS 2017 will feature four full days of conference presentations, panels, and workshops hosting dozens of speakers from the world of science and skepticism. NECSS weekend will also include evening performances and social activities available to conference attendees as well as the general public.

NECSS is co-sponsored by the New England Skeptical Society, the Society for Science-Based Medicine, and New York City Skeptics. Members of all organizations will enjoy discounted registration at the conference, so please consider joining!

Early bird conference registration will open soon. Until then, you can stay updated by liking the NECSS Facebook page, following us on Twitter, and signing up for email updates.

See you in June!


Public Lecture: Lynne Kelly -- A Skeptic Tackles Stonehenge

When: Saturday, Februrary 11, 2017 @ 3:00 PM 
Where: Jefferson Market Library (425 Ave of the Americas at 10th Street)

There are more crazy idea about Stonehenge than any other place in the world. So what happens when a hardcore skeptic claims to have solved one of the world’s greatest mysteries? And then gets even wilder by claiming that the same thinking also explains Easter Island, the Nazca Lines and lots of other mysterious sites around the world? It’s all to do with the extraordinary methods that non-literate cultures use to memorize the vast amount of rational information on which their survival depends.

Dr. Lynne Kelly is a founding member of the Australian Skeptics. With degrees in Engineering, IT, Education, and a doctorate in Arts, she has published 16 books including The Skeptic's Guide to the Paranormal and  two books based on her PhD research, Knowledge and Power in Prehistoric Societies (Cambridge University Press) and The Memory Code.

Event Links


Reasonable New York Annual Winter Solstice Party

When: Wednesday, December 21, 2016 @ 6:30 PM 
Where: Whitman and Bloom, 384 3rd Avenue, New York, NY (map)

Event Links


Skepticamp NYC 2016

When: Saturday, December 3rd, 2016 @ 10:00 AM - 6:00 PM
Where: Lawrence and Eris Field Building, Baruch College, 17 Lexington Ave., Room 306 (The "Skylight Room")


Admission is FREE of charge!

SkeptiCamp is like a science conference, except that its content is provided by the attendees themselves! Anyone can be a presenter, as long as your topic has something to do with science and/or skepticism.

It is based on the successful "unconference" model that originated with "BarCamp". (No, it has nothing to do with bars. The name has its own rich history, which you can read about on our Etymology page.) While BarCamp has primarily focused on software and technology, SkeptiCamp will focus on topics related to science, critical thinking, and other notions that appeal to a skeptical crowd.

Conventional conferences tend to follow a standard pattern of linear presentation, followed by Q&A. We hope the sessions and presentations given at SkeptiCamp NYC are more like lively discussions, than straight seminars. Perhaps even a few workshops will be sprinkled in. Presenters should try to welcome the bombardment of questions, after their initial introduction to the topic is made. Though, some may still choose to err on the side of convention.

SkeptiCamp is intended for adults and college students. Youth can also join us, if they'd like, as long as they have their parents' or guardians' permission.

Anyone who can be in the New York City area, at the given date and time is invited to join and... perhaps even lead a session of your own!

 Event Links


The Hormone Myth? Robyn Stein DeLuca Visits the NYC Skeptics

“Nothing seems to have the power of good and evil like women’s hormones,” said psychologist Robyn Stein DeLuca. While a less-than-optimal testosterone level might just turn a man into a “schlumpy, low-T guy,” any change in a woman’s hormone levels is often thought to cause legitimate physical or mental illnesses.

“There’s the ubiquitous PMS joke,” DeLuca told the packed house of New York City Skeptics at Baruch College on October 22. It’s usually about what the abbreviation actually stands for, whether that’s “Pardon My Sobbing” or “Pissy Mood Syndrome.” DeLuca’s personal favorite is the answer to a riddle – what do you get when you cross PMS with a GPS?

“A bitch who knows how to find you,” DeLuca said.

But despite the idea’s saturation in our culture, and after five decades of research, there is still no consensus on whether “premenstrual syndrome” even exists, DeLuca said. Proposed symptoms run the gamut from the familiar mood swings, depression, hostility and weight gain to either increases OR decreases in hunger and libido – over 150 possible symptoms in all. And researchers didn’t always agree on how soon before (or even after!) menstruation they have to occur to justify a diagnosis of PMS.

Depending on how you looked at it, then, anywhere from 3% to 97% of women may have suffered from PMS. The condition, now called premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD), was finally codified more precisely in 1994’s fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. To qualify, sufferers now must present one of four main symptoms (mood swings, irritability, depression or anxiety), plus four others, within the final week before menstruation. Under this new definition, less than 9% of American women can be diagnosed with PMDD.

“Your distress has to affect your functioning,” relationships or work, DeLuca put it more plainly. Just being grouchy isn’t enough.

And those afflicted will find some relief from PMS once menopause begins – unless that’s a disorder in need of treatment, too! The time of a woman’s life that officially starts after 12 months without menstruation wasn’t much talked about in medical journals until the 1950s, when doctors began to warn of women “getting annoyed with their husbands” and *gasp* “refusing to make dinner”! Conversely, most women who have undergone menopause rate it as not that big a deal. So why do some fear it?

DeLuca says much of the early blame can be placed on Robert Wilson and his 1966 book Forever Feminine, which she calls “a compendium of misogyny and chauvinism.” The book characterized menopause as a sort of living death that required hormonal replacement therapy. Good thing the drug company Wyeth, who helped Wilson write Forever Feminine, made a pill just for that.

“It’s like PMS all over again,” DeLuca said of the shift to treating menopause like a disorder. Many still believe that menopausal women are more likely to suffer from depression, something that statistics simply don’t bear out. And there’s a good, non-biological reason older women might get depressed. “When you get into your 50s and 60s, people start dying,” DeLuca said, “which is really depressing.”

The pharmaceutical industry’s motivation in medicating women’s hormones is clear – “You can [buy] some Midol to be a human being again,” DuLuca said – but women themselves can perpetuate the myths when using them as convenient excuses. It’s easy to blame momentary lapses and outbursts on hormones, and not just ordinary stress, when there’s familial pressure to keep the “good woman crown.”

But the hormone myth is more damaging than just a few pills and a Betty Crocker image. DeLuca thinks it has something to do with women’s continued underrepresentation at the top levels of business and in other occupations that are considered to be more “rational.” On a personal level, it’s hard to address any kind of issues when their origins are misattributed.

 “You kind of lose the opportunity to understand what’s going on with you and to do anything about it,” DeLuca said.

For more discussion on the hormone replacement drug Premarin, check out the Facebook Live video of DeLuca's lecture. Her book The Hormone Myth:  Junk Science, Gender Politics, and Lies About Women will be available in May.

Report by Russ Dobler, photos by Jonathan Nelson